The Iraqi constitution, now being drafted in Baghdad is quite a different matter. To start with, the delegates are working against an August 15 deadline set by the United States. When some Iraqi leaders wanted to extend that deadline, the Americans vetoed the idea. The Bush administration, anxious to begin removing our troops as soon as possible, and hopefully before next year’s congressional election, views the constitution as a critical step in developing a stable Iraqi government, or at least a fig leaf, which will permit the withdrawal process to begin.

Then there is the violence. Those delegates participating in the constitutional process are doing so at a great risk to themselves and their families. With the country split in three religious/ethnic factions: Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds, the gun is exerting as much influence on the drafting as the pen. The Sunni delegates are particularly at risk both from Sunni insurgents who want to destroy the democratic process and plunge the country into chaos, as well as from Shiite hit squads aiming for retribution because of suicide bombers killing their people.

Besides operating in this environment, the draftsmen are facing a number of intractable issues. The two most difficult are the role of Islam in the new Iraq, and whether Iraq should in fact be a single nation or a federation of three autonomous regions formed by each of the three groups. On both issues the stakes are huge, not just for the Iraqi people, but for the United States and the rest of the world.

On the religious matter, there is no question that Islam will be the country’s religion. The real issue is whether a commitment to the extreme forms of Islamic law will trump secular democracy. This is the situation in Iran where unelected clerics have the right to overrule decisions of the elected officials, making a mockery of democracy.

A particular sensitive issue here is women’s rights. In Iran, roving bands of religious vigilantes beat or arrest women for not wearing the veil, in their view being immodestly dressed or mixing in public with men other than their husbands. Above the elected Iranian president and legislature stands the supreme Ayatollah, the Shiite whose authority over everything in the country is absolute.

The United States is not fighting this war at great cost in human lives and resources to create another Iran. There is a serious risk that this will occur because the Sunni leaders, far more secular than the Shiites, are underrepresented in the constitutional drafting process because of their own fault.

The issues of federalism are equally difficult. Since the first American Iraqi war, the Kurds in the north have enjoyed a considerable measure of autonomy. Their ultimate goal is independence, but the Kurdish leaders are pragmatic enough to accept a solidified and expanded autonomy, which means that hey will control the provinces where they constitute a majority. One of those areas happens to include about half of Iraq’s oil so the issue is particularly thorny.

If that weren’t enough, some Sunnis, who for years were the ruling clique under Saddam Hussein, are now chafing at the idea of the Shiites running the country. For some of them, the solution is simple: split the country into three political entities. One Sunni; a second Shiite; and a third Kurdish. This bifurcation of an existing state along ethnic issues has an unfortunate historical precedent: Yugoslavia. The consequence of that situation was endless bloodshed, ethnic cleansing, human misery and despair. With the oil in Iraq, chaos of that type would have a far greater impact on the rest of the world.

One possibility is that the Iraqis drafting the constitution will end up with vague formulations on these two most important issues. Under this scenario, the document will pay lip service to Islam on religion and autonomy, but defer meaningful resolution for the indefinite future. This may be the best that can be expected given the August 15 deadline and other considerations. Whether it will be enough to prevent the country from descending into civil war remains to be seen.

I checked with an odds maker in Las Vegas. He’s taking bets at even money on whether a single democratic state will emerge from this constitution drafting process.

Will Iraqi versions of Thomas Jefferson, John Adams and Ben Franklin please come forward. We desperately need you right now.