There is nothing surprising about China’s announcement of the position that it regards Taiwan as a part of China and a breakaway province. This has consistently been the Chinese position. What is surprising is that Beijing decided precisely now to take this serious and provocative step.

Over the last several years, from time to time the Taiwanese issue has come to the surface as one side of the other has tried to push away from the status quo which provides for an ambiguous coexistence between China and Taiwan. In this situation, Taiwan is suspended somewhere between independence and being a Chinese province.

At times, some Taiwanese officials, including current president Chen have indicated an intention to change the Taiwan constitution or take other steps to move toward independence. These have been met with a strong and stern response from Beijing. When this has occurred, the United States has leaned hard on Taiwan, and the Taiwanese have consistently backed down. The recent reelection of President Chen gave rise to a number of such incidents. Each time, however, the United States was able to smooth over the conflict. On both sides the prevailing view seemed to favor increasing the business and economic interaction between China and Taiwan with the hope that over time the political differences will somehow face away.

In this regard, enormous progress was made toward reconciliation very recently. In the past, Beijing has been unwilling to permit direct flights between Taiwan and China. Thus, business people operating facilities on both sides of the strait had to take connecting flights to Hong Kong or some other intermediate point. Likewise for families seeking to be together for visits.

Remarkably, the two sides had reached a landmark agreement allowing nonstop passenger flights between the mainland and Taiwan during last month’s Lunar New Year holidays. China had invited Taiwan to discuss similar flights during other holidays and discussions were underway to authorize charter cargo flights. Thus, until this action from the Chinese legislature, enormous progress was being made. It appeared for the first time in years as if Beijing might be willing to let economic development flourish and push political resolution of the Taiwanese issue to the back burner. That was all changed dramatically on March 13. The question is why?

There are two possible explanations in my judgment. The first is that this legislation is the manifestation of a deep split within the Chinese government, its ruling Communist party and its military. Under this theory, the hardliners who prevailed in connection with Tianamen Square after a considerable period of indecisiveness, have now gained the upper hand. They are appalled by the extent of economic interaction between the mainland and Taiwan. In their view these “facts on the ground” will ensure that over the long run China will never regain control over Taiwan.

The hardliners are prepared to launch a war to regain the island. Under this analysis, the legislation is designed to evoke outrage on the part of the Taiwanese and encourage the government in Taipei to take steps which Beijing can claim are sufficient to trigger a military response.

China is prepared to launch its attack on short notice. Taiwan is the size of the state of Maryland. It has 23 million inhabitants. Thousands of Chinese missiles are pointed at the heart of Taiwan across a narrow strait. State of the art Chinese submarines and other vessels are prepared to attack the island and carry invading soldiers.

The hardliners in Beijing are picking for a fight. They would like to do it precisely now when the United States is pinned down in Iraq and Afghanistan. Notwithstanding sharp words from Washington, it is questionable whether the United States congress would approve still another military effort at this time, or that our own forces stretched so thin would be in a position to move effectively.

The second possible explanation is that this Chinese legislation is a direct response to last month’s historic agreement between the United States and Japan in which those two countries indicated that they would take joint action in the defense of Taiwan if necessary. Historical animosity between China and Japan, extending for hundreds of years and strongly exacerbated in the Second World War, still dominates the thinking in Beijing. The Chinese leaders viewed the United States Japanese agreement as a strong provocation and they were determined to respond.

Confirmation of this theory comes from statements immediately after the enactment of the legislation by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao. Wen explicitly referred to the recent move by Japan to list Taiwan as a joint security concern it shares with the United States. Wen then compared the new Chinese law to anti secession resolutions passed by the U.S. congress before the Civil War making it clear that China viewed Taiwanese situation as comparable to the secession by the southern states from the Union. Wen added “we don’t hope for foreign interference, yet. We are not afraid of it.”

Immediately after the U.S. Japanese agreement, I warned in an article in Military.com that the United States was playing a dangerous game by provoking China with this agreement with Japan. That prediction has come home even faster then I had thought.

For the next several decades, the United States will be involved in an enormous economic conflict with China as this rising giant in Asia seeks to displace the United States as the premier economic power in the world. Militarily, the Chinese are on the rise as well. It is strongly in the interest of all three parties: The United States, China and Japan, to avoid military conflict and continue economic development. However, national animosities and pride run deep. The possibilities of a miscalculation are enormous. Taiwan could easily be the flashpoint for a war which none of the parties want.