[Allan Topol / AllanTopol.Com]
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The Next Demagogue
by Allan Topol, [IMAGE]2011

ARTICLE ORIGINALLY APPEARED AT MILITARY.COM, December 09, 2011

Photo Courtesy: Julie Zitin
[Allan Topol / AllanTopol.Com] One rising threat in the Middle Eastern turmoil who receives scant critical attention is Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey. Erdogan has been incredibly effective in manipulating Turkish democracy to create an almost dictatorial position for himself. At the same time, driven by a massive ego, he is trying to make himself the most powerful figure in the region. In essence, the Sultan of the second Ottoman Empire.

The first Ottoman Empire wasn't so great--as empires go. It reached its height in the sixteenth century when the Turks controlled Arabia, Egypt, and much of Eastern Europe up to and including Hungary. From that point, it was all downhill with the collapse coming in World War I when the allies occupied Istanbul. From these ashes, Mustafa Kemal, a famous military leader who renamed himself, Ataturk, father of the Turks, created a new democratic state which was to be secular with Islam relegated to a back seat.

Until Erdogan took control of the government, the strict separation of church and state was enforced by the Army. Erdogan, however, the leader of an Islamic party, changed all that by imprisoning army officers who were unwilling to accept the Islamic drift of the government. This caused other officers to quit the military in order to avoid going to jail. Erdogan deals harshly with all his enemies, not just military leaders. Turkey may consider itself a democracy, but criticism of Erdogan or his government is not tolerated. Under Erdogan, there are 76 journalists in jail in Turkey for speaking out against the government. More than in China.

Then there is Erdogan's treatment of Turkey's Kurdish minority. For centuries the Kurds have existed as a minority in Southeast Turkey, periodically making noises, but not much more, about autonomy. Erdogan has used brutal force against the Kurds. He has also used his power to hold people for years in pretrial detention, arresting 47 lawyers and 500 students who were suspected of aiding Kurdish terrorists.

Likewise, Erdogan has changed Turkey's foreign policy. With the second largest military in NATO, the Turks for decades looked westward and sought integration with Europe. Believing he was spurned by the EU, Erdogan turned eastward. He is determined to force his views on other nations in the region.

Erdogan destroyed the excellent relations Turkey had with Israel when the Israelis refused to capitulate to his demand that they lift their blockade of Gaza, which the U.N. has recognized to be legal. Once the Israelis responded with force to attacks on their troops by armed Turks on a flotilla, Erdogan, in a show of pique, severed diplomatic relations with Israel.

While claiming to be an ally of the United States, Erdogan refused to let the U.S. military enter Iraq from Turkey in the north during the second Iraqi war. Unquestionably, this would have saved American lives. With friends like these . . .

In the Mediterranean, Erdogan has appointed himself as the arbiter of conflicting claims to oil and gas under the seabed. Cyprus refuses to yield to his demands, raising the risk of war between Turkey and Cyprus.

In response the so called Arab Spring, Erdogan is trying to influence the course of events in Tunisia, Egypt, and Syria. What he is overlooking is that the Arabs despised Turkish rule in the first Ottoman Empire. They are not anxious for a repetition.

Like other demagogues who have soared, Erdogan, too, may come crashing to earth. His Achilles heel is the Turkish economy, which has been flying high for the last several years, thereby fueling Erdogan's popularity at home. But a recent article in the Financial Times explains that much of the Turkish economic miracle has been fueled by currency manipulation. That can only continue for so long.

Erdogan faces a day of economic reckoning. Until that occurs, Americans should not be deceived by the handsome, well dressed, Turkish Prime Minister claiming to be a democrat and a friend of the United States.