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Middle Eastern Upheaval by Allan Topol, 2007
ARTICLE ORIGINALLY APPEARED AT
MILITARY.COM, April 03, 2007
First, there is Lebanon. The Shiite led regime in Iran, freed from the threat of attack from the west by their mortal enemy, Saddam, has been funneling arms via Syria to Shiites in Lebanon. Iran has trained and organized these Shiites under the Hezbollah banner not only to attack Israel last July, but to wreck the Lebanese government. A year ago the flowers of democracy were in full bloom in Lebanon. Now there is only despair.
Second, there is Saudi Arabia. King Abdullah has been watching the Sunni versus Shiite sectarian violence in Iraq and the formation of a Shiite government in Baghdad with increasing concern. Ten percent of the Saudi population is Shiite. The Saudi Shiites havent shared in the riches of the Saudi economy fueled by petro dollars and have no say in the Sunni controlled monarchy. However, these Shiites happen to be the main population group in the eastern part of the kingdom which is where the oil is. If King Abdullah, head of the Arab Sunni world, isnt sleeping soundly these days, theres a reason. He has to be worried about a scenario in which the Shiites in his country, inspired by the example of the Iraqi Shiites, rise up and say goodbye Abdullah, and start their own oil rich state. The Saudi King and his entourage will be back riding camels.
Even if that doesnt occur, Abdullah has to worry about sabotage by Shiites aimed at his oil infrastructure. The Saudis may be able to defend against attacks on the ground, but missiles from Tehran are another matter.
Then theres Israel. Since Israels creation in 1948, the Saudis have been bitterly opposed to the existence of the Jewish state in the Middle East. Prior to Saddams overthrow, no Saudi ruler ever uttered the I word in public. But all that changed recently. Last week, King Abdullah publicly declared that the Arabs are willing to have normal relations with Israel once it makes peace with its neighbors.
The reason for this astounding change is simple. Since Saddams fall, Shiite Iran has been exploiting the Israeli Palestinian dispute by arming Hamas. Abdullah is so anxious to blunt Irans influence that hes even willing to broker a peace agreement which recognizes Israels existence. The terms that Abdullah has proposed are unacceptable to Israel, but they are only a starting position. Israeli Prime Minister Olmert has given a positive response to the Saudi initiative.
In Iraq itself, as the weeks pass, the dismemberment of this country, which was held together by Saddams reign of terror, into a loose federation of Shiites, Sunni and Kurdish states, ala the former Yugoslavia, seems more likely. The Kurds love the idea. For generations they have yearned for autonomy. Now they may have it, but that may lead to unrest for Turkeys Kurdish minority and perhaps a civil war in parts of Turkey. A cruel response by the Turkish government will end any chance that country has of joining the EU.
Most recently there is the standoff between Britain and Iran over the British sailors and marines taken hostage. By being our closest ally in the Iraqi war, Prime Minister Blair has set his nation on a course that has led to the risk of conflict with Iran. As this conflict plays out, the price of oil rises higher on a daily basis. The Iranians are threatening to block oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf chokepoint, though which twenty percent of the worlds oil supply passes. If that occurs, oil is likely to spike in excess of $100 a barrel and gasoline prices above $5 a gallon. The economic repercussions will be dire. The American economy could be plunged into recession.
The unintended consequences from the United States toppling of Saddam Hussein go on and on.
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