[Allan Topol / AllanTopol.Com]
Lightning paced thriller writer
of International Intrigue
National Bestselling Author
HOME NEWS CONTACT BOOKS ORDER SUBSCRIBE NEWSLETTER ARTICLES

Admitting Stupidity
by Allan Topol, [IMAGE]2005

ARTICLE ORIGINALLY APPEARED AT MILITARY.COM, August 31, 2006

Photo Courtesy: Julie Zitin
[Allan Topol / AllanTopol.Com] Last Monday’s Washington Post contained a startling article buried on page A9. In it, the newspaper quoted Hezbollah leader, Hasan Nasrallah, as stating in a television interview that if he had known when he gave the order to kill three Israeli soldiers and kidnap two others in a cross border raid on July 12 that this incident would have led to the recent war with Israel, then he would not have ordered the operation. In Nasrallah’s words, “you ask me if I had known on July 11...that the operation would lead to such a war, would I do it? I say no, absolutely not.”

What was startling about this statement is that it flies in the face of all of the boasting and swagger that Hezbollah spokesmen have expressed publicly during and after the fighting. To listen to them waving their yellow banners and carrying around suitcases of American dollars supplied by Iran, one would have thought that Hezbollah won this war. Nasrallah’s candid admission says otherwise.

In view of the importance of the statement, I was also stunned to find it buried on the middle of page A9 on the same newspaper that day after day ran front page articles about every detail of the war including any Israeli bombs that may have missed their target. Here was a far more newsworthy event. Yet it hardly saw the light of day.

Perhaps the information wasn’t accurate, I thought. So when I reached the office, I opened the New York Times. That distinguished newspaper had this same information buried in the middle of an article on page A3, entitled “Fox News Journalists Free After Declaring Conversion on Tape.” At least the Post had a small headline over the article that said, “Hezbollah Chief Revisits Raid.” In substance, the New York Times quote from Nasrallah was identical to that in the Washington Post.

This brings us to the intriguing question of why Nasrallah made his statement, if in fact the war was such a huge success for Hezbollah. The answer of course is that notwithstanding the American media’s gullibility in believing Hezbollah’s PR, the war was not a success for this terrorist organization. Let’s look at what Nasrallah lost.

Prior to the war, he and Hezbollah had complete control over Southern Lebanon. They had a virtual state within a state in southern Lebanon. Within their mini-state, no one disturbed Hezbollah’s continual flow of sophisticated arms from Iran via Syria. Hezbollah was free to dig and fortify tunnels, build underground bunkers and shoot sporadically across the border into Israel whenever the mood hit them. Now, there will be a force of Lebanese soldiers as well as Europeans under a U.N. banner with troops at least from Italy and France. To be sure, the operating instructions of these troops are vague and no one is talking about disarming Hezbollah by force. However, Hezbollah’s freedom to rearm and to commence military operations has been drastically curtailed.

Then there is the damage to Hezbollah forces. Scores of Hezbollah fighters were killed, perhaps hundreds. No one knows for sure. Much of Hezbollah’s infrastructure in southern Lebanon and elsewhere in the country was dealt a significant blow. Many of their arms were destroyed or captured by the Israelis. Rebuilding all of these, which took so many years to assemble, will be a painstaking process even if Hezbollah’s financial backers in Tehran are willing to commit unlimited funds, which remains to be seen.

Finally, there is Hezbollah’s standing within the Lebanese society as a whole. Before the war, Hezbollah had made some inroads toward having a role in the new Lebanese democratic government which was only formed months ago when the Syrians were kicked out of the country after they overreached with Harari’s assassination. Hezbollah doesn’t start with a preferred position. They are Shiites, and as the fighting in Iraq shows, the ruling Sunni upper class has enormous contempt, grounded in centuries of animosity for the despised Shiites. Add to this the fact that Iran is not an Arab country, but Persian, and the Arabs, including the Lebanese, have never wanted to be dominated by the Persians. At the end of the day, Nasrallah can point all of the fingers that he wants in Israel’s direction and claim that Israel inflicted this major damage on Lebanon setting the country back years in its economic improvement. However, increasingly, middle and upper class Lebanese, the people who run the country, are blaming N asrallah for what happened.

Hence, his admission as reported in the American media this week. Nasrallah is saying to the Lebanese establishment, “Hey, I had no idea this was going to happen. You can’t blame me. I couldn’t have expected this by just killing a couple of soldier and kidnapping a few others.”

The apology won’t work. It makes the situation even worse from Nasrallah’s standpoint. He’s confessing that he had no idea of the consequences that would flow from his action.. Thus, arrogance is combined with stupidity—an unbeatable combination.