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Admitting Stupidity by Allan Topol, 2005
ARTICLE ORIGINALLY APPEARED AT
MILITARY.COM, August 31, 2006
What was startling about this statement is that it flies in the face of all of the boasting and swagger that Hezbollah spokesmen have expressed publicly during and after the fighting. To listen to them waving their yellow banners and carrying around suitcases of American dollars supplied by Iran, one would have thought that Hezbollah won this war. Nasrallahs candid admission says otherwise.
In view of the importance of the statement, I was also stunned to find it buried on the middle of page A9 on the same newspaper that day after day ran front page articles about every detail of the war including any Israeli bombs that may have missed their target. Here was a far more newsworthy event. Yet it hardly saw the light of day.
Perhaps the information wasnt accurate, I thought. So when I reached the office, I opened the New York Times. That distinguished newspaper had this same information buried in the middle of an article on page A3, entitled Fox News Journalists Free After Declaring Conversion on Tape. At least the Post had a small headline over the article that said, Hezbollah Chief Revisits Raid. In substance, the New York Times quote from Nasrallah was identical to that in the Washington Post.
This brings us to the intriguing question of why Nasrallah made his statement, if in fact the war was such a huge success for Hezbollah. The answer of course is that notwithstanding the American medias gullibility in believing Hezbollahs PR, the war was not a success for this terrorist organization. Lets look at what Nasrallah lost.
Prior to the war, he and Hezbollah had complete control over Southern Lebanon. They had a virtual state within a state in southern Lebanon. Within their mini-state, no one disturbed Hezbollahs continual flow of sophisticated arms from Iran via Syria. Hezbollah was free to dig and fortify tunnels, build underground bunkers and shoot sporadically across the border into Israel whenever the mood hit them. Now, there will be a force of Lebanese soldiers as well as Europeans under a U.N. banner with troops at least from Italy and France. To be sure, the operating instructions of these troops are vague and no one is talking about disarming Hezbollah by force. However, Hezbollahs freedom to rearm and to commence military operations has been drastically curtailed.
Then there is the damage to Hezbollah forces. Scores of Hezbollah fighters were killed, perhaps hundreds. No one knows for sure. Much of Hezbollahs infrastructure in southern Lebanon and elsewhere in the country was dealt a significant blow. Many of their arms were destroyed or captured by the Israelis. Rebuilding all of these, which took so many years to assemble, will be a painstaking process even if Hezbollahs financial backers in Tehran are willing to commit unlimited funds, which remains to be seen.
Finally, there is Hezbollahs standing within the Lebanese society as a whole. Before the war, Hezbollah had made some inroads toward having a role in the new Lebanese democratic government which was only formed months ago when the Syrians were kicked out of the country after they overreached with Hararis assassination. Hezbollah doesnt start with a preferred position. They are Shiites, and as the fighting in Iraq shows, the ruling Sunni upper class has enormous contempt, grounded in centuries of animosity for the despised Shiites. Add to this the fact that Iran is not an Arab country, but Persian, and the Arabs, including the Lebanese, have never wanted to be dominated by the Persians. At the end of the day, Nasrallah can point all of the fingers that he wants in Israels direction and claim that Israel inflicted this major damage on Lebanon setting the country back years in its economic improvement. However, increasingly, middle and upper class Lebanese, the people who run the country, are blaming N
asrallah for what happened.
Hence, his admission as reported in the American media this week. Nasrallah is saying to the Lebanese establishment, Hey, I had no idea this was going to happen. You cant blame me. I couldnt have expected this by just killing a couple of soldier and kidnapping a few others.
The apology wont work. It makes the situation even worse from Nasrallahs standpoint. Hes confessing that he had no idea of the consequences that would flow from his action.. Thus, arrogance is combined with stupidityan unbeatable combination.
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