To be sure, Castro could not lead Cuba forever. However, it seemed like that, as the Cuban leader managed to survive ten American administrations, nearly reaching the age of 80. The torch has been passed to Fidel’s brother, Raul, but the little brother is 75 himself and it’s unclear how long he will remain in power and what happens next.

In thinking about Cuba, I am reminded of a movie I once saw in which a bloody body was tossed into shark infested waters. The feeding frenzy which occurred is an apt metaphor for what we are beginning to see with Cuba.

To start with, there are the Cuban leftists who possessed power under Fidel and would like to continue with the perks that power brings. Then there is the small but nascent democratic movement in Cuba. Across a narrow strip of water are the Cuban Americans who have been longing for this day and many of whom are determined to return to their native island, retake the property they once owned and return to the good life they once had. In another direction are the South American leftists, Hugo Chavez in Venezuela and Evo Morales in Bolivia, both of whom have forged a tight relationship with Fidel and are anxious to continue to exert influence over the island.

For the United States, our objective is easy to articulate: A free and democratic Cuba and a mutually beneficial trading partner with the United States. How to achieve that objective is far more difficult.

To start with, there is the question of whether Raul will be able to consolidate power and assume control over the government. He has been Fidel’s right hand man for years, having the defense portfolio. On the other hand, he does not have Fidel’s charisma, nor does he enjoy Fidel’s support among the Cuban populous. Thus, there is a real question of whether others on the edge of power might make a move to topple Raul and seize control of the government. One possibility is Ricardo Alarcon, president of the Cuban National Assembly. If the battle for power breaks out on the island then the question is whether Raul retain control of the Army and police or whether those will move in a different direction. These issues are hard to predict because of the shroud of secrecy which Fidel has imposed over the island during his long rule.

A military conflict on the island is likely to result in huge numbers of Cubans attempting to flee the island by boat to Florida. The United States Coast Guard is on alert and their operating orders are to prevent such a large scale migration to the United States. There may also be a large movement by boat in the other direction as Cuban Americans make a move toward Cuba in large numbers to take control of the island. Should that occur, the United States military will probably stop their movement as well.

The United States cannot take the risk of having Cuba under its new government fall under the domination of Chavez and Morales. There may be a possibility that Raul will change some of Fidel’s policies. It is conceivable that he could open up the Cuban economy while retaining autocratic rule as the government of China has done. If this occurs, and if Raul sends signals in this direction, then the United States should reach out toward him. Although, the Cuban Americans are a swing constituency in a swing state which happens to be governed by the President Bush’s brother a peaceful transition is so strongly in America’s interests, that we should do everything we can to foster and encourage it. If there’s a possibility of working with Raul we should try to do that if he is prepared to move toward a free market and a more democratic rule.

There is a possibility of military intervention on one side or another in this conflict by Venezuela and Bolivia. If that occurs, the U.S. should move aggressively to head off their effort. Very dicey days are imminent for the United States with respect to Cuba. The President must make his decisions based on our country’s overall political and economic interests.