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Playing the India Card by Allan Topol, 2005
ARTICLE ORIGINALLY APPEARED AT
MILITARY.COM, March 15, 2006
In justifying this deal, Bush pointed to the strong democratic character of the Indian government, which is undeniably correct. He also pointed to its long and abiding friendship with the United States which has in fact varied from time to time depending upon Indian perceptions of its own self interests and United States policy toward Indias avowed enemy, Pakistan.
This agreement could not come at a worse time in terms of U.S. antinuclear proliferation efforts. We are engaged in an intense effort to persuade, cajole and threaten North Korea and Iran into not developing nuclear weapon programs. By not only permitting India to go this route, but easing its path, the United States has now made it much more difficult to advance its policies with respect to North Korea and Iran. I recognize that there is an old expression: consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds. However, inconsistency can also rise to the level of hypocrisy. Permitting those nations perceived to be Americas friends at any given moment, to do whatever they want, is a dangerous foreign policy. It does not produce respect for the United States among other nations.
Then there is the matter of Pakistan, a bitter rival of India. Military rule by General Musharraf is anything but democratic. When elections take place they are rigged. Notwithstanding all of this, Pakistan is a critical U.S. allay in the war against terrorism and most importantly in the hunt for Osama Bin Laden and his Al Qaeda colleagues.
Though efforts were made to conceal Pakistans unhappiness with Bushs agreement with India, the anger in Islamabad was visible. Recognizing the stakes, Bush made this risky personal trip to Pakistan where the chances of an assassination attempt were substantial. Photographs of the President playing cricket in Pakistan didnt dampen the angry mood. Moreover, Pakistan probably with help from China will no doubt expand its own nuclear weapons program.
Thus, the negative results of this agreement with India are two fold. It adversely affects our efforts to stop the spread of nuclear weapons. And it has a negative affect on the war on terror by weakening Pakistans help. These are substantial downsides. The question is why did the President risk them. The answer is simple: containment of China. The Bush administration is increasingly alarmed by growing military power in China. Fearful that nations leadership will be unable to control hawks in its military from an aggressive policy such as retaking Taiwan by force, the United States is developing a policy of encirclement. In the last couple of years, the U.S. has encouraged renewed militarism in Japan with the idea that Tokyo, with all of the animosities it has toward China, could step in militarily in the event of an attack against Taiwan. In the India deal, Bush wishes to block Chinas expansion in the south and in the west.
This policy with Japan makes sense. Those two nations have not resolved their historical and World War II differences. With India, it is dubious at best. The Indians, if not threatened personally by China are likely to look the other way regardless of what Beijing does in Asia.
All of this harm may be for naught. The agreement with India is subject to congressional approval. Given the current mood in congress, as reflected by the U.S. ports acquisition by a UAE company, Bush will have great difficulty gaining an approval from Congress.
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