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The Next Phase of French Violence
by Allan Topol, [IMAGE]2005

ARTICLE ORIGINALLY APPEARED AT MILITARY.COM, December 07, 2005

Photo Courtesy: Julie Zitin
[Allan Topol / AllanTopol.Com] The French government and the press have taken great pains to characterize the recent outbreak of violence as spontaneous, caused by young people reacting to the deaths of two Muslim youths who were electrocuted after taking refuge in an electrical substation, where police reportedly chased them. The French Interior Minister, who is responsible for enforcing law and order, described those involved in the violence as “scum,” “the rabble,” accountable for the lawlessness in many “hot suburbs.” Now that the violence has died down, the French authorities are breathing a collective sigh of relief.

Their assessment that spontaneous outbreaks produced the spiraling violence is wishful thinking, unduly simplistic and wrong. It taxes credulity to believe that without some coordination or some figures fanning the flames with the use of the internet, that violence could have broken out in 300 cities and towns within a couple of days. Increasingly, some French law enforcement officials have concluded that organized Islamic groups fueled the nightly violence. It’s the dirty little secret that’s publicly denied at the top of the French government.

Some Americans were less than sympathetic to the French during the outbreak of violence. On several occasions I have heard, “they deserve it.” Whether these expressions are motivated by French foreign policy positions, which I have criticized from time to time, wine prices or something else, they are absurd. Nobody deserves what’s happening in France. Moreover, there is bound to be spillover to the United States as well as throughout Western Europe, when the violence moves into a second phase as it inevitably will.

Within France, an internal debate is now raging about socioeconomic causes of the violence, i.e., young people without jobs, poor living conditions, discrimination within the society, etc. It’s a familiar refrain. Throwing money and enacting welfare programs intended to improve the economic plight of the children of Muslim immigrants in French society won’t solve the problem. These two discordant communities cannot exist in harmony.

Even more troublesome than the violence is what the future holds in store for France. That country has the largest Muslim community in Europe, about four to five million. The exact count is unknown due to illegal immigration in addition to the million and a half whom France welcomed in 1965 from Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia. We have learned all too well that technologically sophisticated and well financed units of the Islamic Jihad movement, whether directed by Osama Bin Laden or one of his allies, are active in Western Europe where, because of the EU, there are no longer borders. The bombings in Spain and England are only two grim examples.

These French riots represent a dream scenario for the recruiters for the violent Islamic Jihad movement. A young man willing to confront fully armed French police in riot gear will have no hesitation in boarding a train, walking into the Paris Opera House, climbing the Eiffel Tower or entering a hotel lobby with a bomb in a backpack. This is the second phase of the violence, in which innocent civilians become the targets rather than automobiles. The potential for death and damage is enormous.

Unfortunately, the French government responded to the first cycle of violence with near paralysis. The French leadership had better lay aside their political issues and take lethal action to prevent attacks in the next phase. That means effective intelligence work to roll up the radical Muslim networks, who will be recruiting these young people to do their dirty work. Arrest, interrogation, expulsion or imprisonment are the tools at the disposal of the authorities. This was precisely what the Australian police did to foil early in November major attacks in that country.

It is widely known that a number of Islamic terrorist groups are operating in France. Some of them are using that country to launch attacks in the Middle East or elsewhere in the world. It is now critical that the French authorities locate and shut down those operations wherever they are, in basements or in mosques, before they plan attacks on French soil. Coordination with intelligence agencies of other countries fighting the same enemy could be invaluable. Those include Britain, the United States and Israel. Yes, there will be violence and deaths on both sides. However, the very existence of the French Republic and western life are at stake.