When you add all of these together, there simply aren’t enough hours in the day for top administration people to deal with basic and strategic issues. All of them have political implications as well as policy aspects. The last thing that the administration needs right now is one more important, high visibility issue. Yet, one is looming on the horizon in Asia.

Last week, China, in a strong display of its new military and economic power, deployed a fleet of warships near a gas field in the East China Sea. This is an area which is rich in resources, particularly oil and gas. Sovereignty over this area is also hotly disputed by China and Japan.

There is a serious risk of war breaking out between these two Asian giants.

The Chinese military is now quite sophisticated and the ships included a guided missile destroyer. The timing of China’s action is also troublesome. It comes only weeks before China is scheduled to start producing gas in the area against strong Japanese protest.

Both China and Japan have been making claims to these oil rich seas. The economies of both countries are now heavily dependent upon oil and gas. China is serving notice with this action that it is prepared to use military force in support of its claim and its drilling in the area. It’s a dangerous game of chicken which Beijing is playing. The Japanese are unlikely to back down and can be expected to add some escalation of their own.

This area of the sea has a second strategic significance. It lies very close to Taiwan and whoever controls these seas will control the shipment of oil to Japan. There are two primary shipping routes. One is very close to Taiwan. The other is a southern route which is significantly longer and adds costs to the Japanese in obtaining oil from the Middle East. Thus, the island of Taiwan gains even greater significance as a chip in this dangerous game being played by Japan and China.

If Beijing were to control Taiwan, they could effectively shut down the shorter sea routes for shipment of Japanese oil. This would be a terrible blow to the Japanese economy. Coming along with Chinese drilling in disputed waters, it would give Beijing an enormous advantage over Japan.

All of this is very reminiscent of the 1930s when energy became a vital issue to the United States and Japan. Ability to obtain oil was one of the motivating factors in Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor. Now the roles of the nations are reversed. The Untied States is wary and apprehensive about China and regards Japan as a staunch ally.

The two critical issues coming to the forefront are first how will Japan respond to China’s provocative acts. Second, what action will the United States take?

Japan has been, in recent months, taking a more aggressive stand against China. For example, Tokyo joined the United States in aggressively lobbying the European union not to lift its arms embargo on China. Likewise, Tokyo has joined the United States in issuing a strong public joint statement warning China not to take any action to change the status of Taiwan.

One thing is clear. France and Germany may have ended their enmity from World War II and prior disputes. China and Japan have not. If anything, the hostility has festered and grown over time.

Until this most recent dispute over oil and gas in the East China Sea surfaced, Taiwan appeared to be the flashpoint. If Beijing, which strongly desires to incorporate Taiwan into its country, made a move to achieve that result by military means, it is likely that Japan, with or without the United States, would come to Taiwan’s air militarily.

Now the two parties have a second dispute which is even more immediate. China has offered to jointly exploit the energy resources in the East China Sea that Japan has refused, claiming sole sovereignty. Meantime, China is moving to begin its own exploration. It is very clear that Japan and China are on a collision course over this issue.

The question is what action should the United States take? Unfortunately, with out military forces and resources stretched so thin over Iraq, Afghanistan and Katrina, any threats that we make to China are likely to be brushed aside by Beijing. Similarly, promises that we make to Japan for support will not be seen as credible. We’re in a very unfortunate situation in dealing with this dispute whose potential significance for the United States is tremendous.

We can hope that calm minds will prevail in Beijing and Tokyo. This doesn’t seem like a good bet given the behavior of these two nations in the past. There may only be 24 hours in every day, but top administration people had better begin spending some of them worrying about the developing storm over the Pacific.