How Libbygate will play out depends on the personalities and individuals involved just as Watergate depended uniquely on John Dean. On one side we have Patrick Fitzgerald, a smart, hard working, experienced savvy prosecutor. His assignment was to determine whether there had been a violation of a federal statute that makes it illegal for a government official to knowingly disclose the identity of a confidential government agent. A single individual can be charged with a violation of this statute, or there could be a conspiracy among several government officials to violate the statute.

Fitzgerald has demonstrated that he is very deliberate in how he proceeds. He appears to have been ready to indict Carl Rove. At the last minute he held back when Rove submitted new documents purporting to show that he simply forgot his conversation about Wilson’s wife with Time magazine reporter, Matthew Cooper.

On the other side, we have Libby, educated at Yale University and Columbia Law School and reminiscent of a character in my novel, Dark Ambition. Libby was successful in private law practice before he entered the government to take the job as Vice President Cheney’s chief of staff and assistant to President Bush. From people who know Libby, he is careful, thoughtful and meticulous about what he says. Taking this job in government meant an enormous financial sacrifice for Libby, who has two young children and a wife who resigned her job as a Democratic staff lawyer on the Senate Judiciary Committee and chose to stay home with their children.

At this point, no one other than Libby and perhaps others in the administration know precisely what occurred in this sordid affair. The key issue is Libby’s motive in his disclosure to the reporters. There are a number of obvious possibilities. One is that Libby, on his own, and without any consultation with Vice President Cheney or anyone else in the administration disclosed Valerie Plame’s name to reporters either as idle chatter, because he personally was angry at Wilson for Wilson’s statements or because he decided to punish the CIA for their lack of support to the administration in the pre-war days. A second possibility is that Libby’s disclosure to reporters came after consultation and as part of an agreed upon strategy with the Vice President or others in the administration for dealing with Wilson and the CIA. The indictment says Cheney told Libby about Plame’s job. And a third possibility is that some of these discussions included President Bush. At this point, all of these are theoretical possibilities.

However, it does seem clear that Fitzgerald is intent on ascertaining and publicly disclosing where the truth lies. Fitzgerald’s move of indicting Libby alone and only for perjury and not the underlying crime was a brilliant tactic. The special prosecutor has stated that his investigation remains open. The issue now is how Libby, who is shopping for a sophisticated white collar criminal lawyer, will respond.

Libby can simply plead guilty and take his sentence of years in prison and a hefty fine. Or Libby could go to trial on the perjury charges. In that event, we might learn the truth of what actually happened, and who else, if anybody, was involved. A third possibility is that Libby will cut a deal with Fitzgerald. In return for a lesser plea, or perhaps no jail time, he will tell the prosecutor everything that happened and who else from the administration was involved in discussions with him relating to Wilson and Valerie Plame.

On this latter point, Senator John Cornyn (R-Tex.) said Sunday on ABC “I think what we found out this week is that any alleged wrongdoing is really confined to a single individual.” That may be wishful thinking or a premature judgment. More likely, we’re only at the beginning, not the end, of a complex legal process. If others were involved besides Libby, I doubt that this intelligent lawyer with two small children will go down alone without giving the entire story.